January 23, 2014

The tractor lady of India


Award: Woman Leader for the Year
Name: Mallika Srinivasan, Chairman, Tafe
Age: 53

Why She Won: For designing and developing farm equipment relevant to Indian farmers. And for building Tafe into the second largest tractor maker in India.


The shelves in Mallika Srinivasan’s office are empty save for an idol of lord Venkateswara. Her table is bare, clean and small. The joke at Tractor and Farm Equipment (Tafe) is that as the company gets bigger, its chairman’s table gets smaller. There is a circular table closer to the door—it’s even smaller. There are a couple of large catalogues on the table. In them, over page after page, photographs and specifications of farm equipments are spread. In their size and sophistication, they seem to have jumped out of Transformers or Real Steel. They can perform a range of operations: Plough land with their giant arms, pluck fruits, harvest grain, and plant saplings with speed and accuracy.

Even four or five years ago, these catalogues would have been science fiction in the context of Indian agriculture. But there have been big changes. Urban migration, employment guarantee schemes, and low productivity have shattered assumptions about cheap labour, and have left agriculturists scrambling for helping hands. The shortage won’t go away—for the simple reason that the employment-to-GDP ratio in agriculture is too skewed to sustain. Mechanisation is the only way, and it’s tempting to think that the catalogues are shopping lists—to buy and resell.

They are not. None of these will work in India. “We cannot import technology from the West and hope it will work here. Farm sizes are small. Farming practices are different,” Mallika says.

So, what’s the way ahead? This is the problem Mallika has been trying to solve for the last several months. Her solution might change the way small farmers work, and even the manner in which a typical village landscape looks. For years, women bending forward and working in lush green fields defined the scene.

If Tafe succeeds, it could be defined by its people-oriented machinery. It will launch its first set of farm equipment specially designed and developed for Indian farm conditions in the next few months. They will be smaller—better to navigate small farms with (over 60 percent of farms in India are less than a hectare). They will be in line with what the Indian farmer wants. And, of course, they will be cost effective.

This new journey is changing Tafe, the company Mallika’s grandfather founded in 1960, when the government dictated the number of tractors a company could make. Tafe’s quota was 7,000 a year.
 

Today, Tafe makes that many in 15 days. It has a 25 percent market share, and is the second largest tractor maker after Mahindra & Mahindra. Its growth last year was especially good. Its tractor sales grew 26.6 percent, more than twice the industry growth rate. In fact, in the last five months, when the sector barely grew (growth was less than 1 percent), Tafe grew at over 28 percent. “Our performance surprised everyone, and I must say even we were surprised,” said RC Banka, deputy CEO, Tafe.

One of the reasons why it did well was the roll out of new products. A few years ago, when the market slowed down, Mallika initiated a cost-cutting exercise, but left one area untouched—research and development. When the market recovered, Tafe had new products to launch, which kept the growth going. Over two-thirds of the growth in the last three years has come from new products.

A bigger reason for Tafe’s success is what Mallika did in 2005. She led its acquisition of Eicher’s tractor business. It gave Tafe an entry into low horsepower tractors, and also in markets where it didn’t have a footprint. At that time, it was considered risky. The market was bad and sales across the industry were dropping. Tafe hadn’t done a big acquisition till then. But, it turned out to be a smart move.

Exports also helped. It accounts for about a seventh of Tafe’s revenues and it grew by 28 percent last year. Mallika said exports are a key part of her strategy, and two years ago, she set up a manufacturing plant in Turkey to tap the local market, and also to supply to Africa eventually. It has strengthened its tie-up with Agco Corp, a Georgia-based farm equipments maker, for distribution in the US. Agco has a 23 percent stake in the company, and Mallika has been on the Agco board since last year.

Tafe’s target is to touch 2 lakh tractors a year in three years, from 1.48 lakh now. But, Mallika’s revenue ambitions are even bigger—to make Tafe a $5 billion company in three to five years. And that’s where the farm mechanisation project fits in. She reckons that the market size, even on a conservative estimate, is $1 billion.

For the new range of products, Mallika laid out two broad principles. One, they should be cost-effective, and two, they should be relevant to farmers. To achieve that, the inputs should come from farmers themselves. Mallika, whom her colleagues describe as someone with a natural instinct for marketing, has inordinate respect for the views of the end-users, and spares no expense for a chance to listen to them. On her trips to rural areas, she always makes it a point to stop at tea shops and get into conversations with people. A Business Line story says: Every morning she gets a stream of text messages from distributors on rainfall in their respective areas. “They say the devil is in the detail, but God is in the detail too,” she said.
 
Recently, she set up two centres of excellence—one for technology and the other for marketing. Banka says Tafe is in the process of hiring about 100 people in technology and about 50 in manufacturing. They come from a range of backgrounds—from mechanical engineering to electronics and energy—and will work on designing and developing products that would suit the smaller farm size and farming practices here. 

Similarly, the second group will look at ways to improve manufacturing practices. This will get more relevant for Tafe for two reasons. First, its own factories will start making a wider range of products, and two, not all products will be made in-house. Banka says, for some of these products, Tafe would build prototypes, demonstrate manufacturing at one of its factories, and tie up with regional players to make the products for the market. Earlier this year, Tafe tied up Captain Tractors, a Gujarat-based company that makes low horsepower tractors and equipment that can go with it. There will be more such tie-ups. 

Mallika is also moving the organisation towards a matrix structure. The earlier hierarchical structure worked when one product dominated its portfolio. However, there is a need to be fast and flexible. The most commonly heard phrase in the company’s corridors is ‘cross-functional’. Now, a manager looking at logistics will be in charge of all products across geographies. A manager from production might be invited to marketing meetings.
 

When Mallika returned to India after getting an MBA from Wharton in 1986, she wanted to join one of the smaller companies in the Amalgamations Group. However, her father, A Sivasailam, asked her to join Tafe, its flagship. He felt she would get a bigger canvas at Tafe and learn a lot. That turned out to be true. In the mid-1980s, the tractor industry was undergoing a change. Till then, the supply, constrained by the Licence Raj, lagged demand, and selling simply meant asking distributors to wait. But, around the time she joined, those shackles were gone and the era of marketing—understanding the customer, feeling the pulse, spotting the trends, and making sure your products are relevant—had dawned.

It was a challenge, but it was also a big opportunity. Tafe’s revenues were Rs 85 crore then. Today, it stands at Rs 8,020 crore.

It’s tempting to say that the scale of both challenge and opportunity is no different today, even if it comes in the form of farm mechanisation. But in Mallika’s personal equation, there is one big change: The death of her father. A Sivasailam was not only a big influence, like many parents are to their children, he was also a constant guide and mentor to Mallika, long after she had established herself as the ‘Tractor Queen’. No big decision was taken without his guidance or approval. He passed away early last year, while on a pilgrimage to Sringeri. He was 77.

Her colleagues say she has made the transition well, taking on the additional responsibility (from her father, as well as her younger sister, who died a few months later) and taking big decisions without the comfort of her father’s guidance. It’s partly because of her uncanny ability to work with professionals.
 

There has hardly been any attrition in her senior team. When Tafe acquired Eicher, many believed the senior managers would leave. That did not happen—her colleagues say, thanks mainly to her approach.

It’s an approach that’s defined by optimism and ambition, a common trait among entrepreneurs. But it’s also defined by an insatiable hunger for knowledge, as if she is still a student at Wharton preparing for the next day’s class.
 

Banka says she attends meetings well-prepared, with a lot of notes, and questions that tend to get into the nitty-gritty of every issue. Once, she was sent some documents late at night that would have left her with hardly any time to prepare. Yet, the next day, for an early morning meeting, she was there with elaborate notes and in-depth questions.
 

PB Sampath, a director at Tafe and an Amalgamations Group veteran who has worked with her father, says, some years ago, during a discussion the topic turned to a minor change in an Act related to accounting. Mallika wanted to know about how Tafe would respond. Sampath said his team will take care of it. But Mallika wasn’t worried about that; she was confident they would. She asked about it because she wanted to learn.
 

There’s one story that Mallika likes to narrate when asked about the most important lesson she learnt from her father. On returning from Wharton, her father gave her a small room at the Tafe office. It was part of a corridor that had been converted into a cabin, and didn’t have a window. The pay was bad. She went to her father, and said that her Wharton classmates were much better off. He replied: “Listen young lady, you might be an MBA from Wharton, but I don’t need one to run the company.”




January 21, 2014

Profit is the reward for Risk



You cannot cross the street without some danger that you will be hit by a car. Getting out of bed, driving a car, and opening a business all involve SOME risk. Risk is simply the possibility of damage, injury, or loss.
Like individuals, business owners need to protect themselves against the risks they face. It is important for entrepreneurs to recognize potential risks they face and prepare effective strategies to deal with them. It is also useful for entrepreneurs to design "contingency plans", or alternative courses of action. Contingency plans show that the entrepreneur is sensitive to important risks and is prepared to handle risks as they occur.

MARKETS:

Some of the risks that almost all businesses face involve competition, price changes, style changes, competition from new products, and changes from fluctuating economic conditions.

ACCIDENTS:

Businesses also face risks beyond these market and economic shifts. For example, a merchandise shipment of tennis shoes may be destroyed in transit. A warehouse may burn down and large amounts of expensive inventory may be lost. Events like these threaten the security of a business. They cost money, and they may cause a business to fail. First, entrepreneurs must be able to identify all the possible risks they face, then decide upon preventive measures to eliminate or reduce the impact of the risks.
As an entrepreneur, there are two primary types of risk that you will face: speculative risk and pure risk.

SPECULATIVE RISK

is uncertainty as to whether an activity will result in a gain or a loss. Risks, such as building a plant that turns out to have the wrong capacity or keeping an inventory level that turns out to be too high or too low, are speculative risks. Speculative risk is unavoidable and is inherent in the nature of the private enterprise system

PURE RISK

is uncertainty as to whether some unpredictable event that can result in loss will occur. Pure risk can result only in loss, never in gain. This kind of risk consists of hazards such as a fire or a hurricane, death of key employees, or customer injuries on the premises of the business. Pure risk exists when the possibility of loss is present, but the extent of the possible loss is unknown. Pure risk is different from speculative risk because speculative risk carries the possibility of gain as well as loss.
When you start a business, you automatically assume risk; you intend to make money, but you also know that you can lose money. Not starting a business at all is the only sure way to avoid the risk. Successful entrepreneurs, however, take control over how much risk they are willing to accept and then develop plans to control the remaining risks.
Businesses face many kinds of risks, and you should realize that there is no way to avoid all of them. Sound business management procedures can minimize the losses your business may suffer from some risks, but no amount of caution and planning can eliminate risk entirely.
As an entrepreneur, you must be able to identify the risks that your business faces and take appropriate preventive measures to minimize losses. In addition, you should be aware of which losses you can protect yourself from by purchasing the appropriate business insurance. Otherwise, a lifetime of work and dreams can be lost in a few minutes.
Risk should not paralyze the zeal and enthusiasm of new entrepreneurs. They must be willing to take moderate risks when they believe there is a strong likelihood that they will succeed. For the entrepreneur, the brighter side of risk-taking is the possibility of success and increasing their wealth. Most dreams cannot come true unless some risks are taken.

HOW DO ENTREPRENEURS MAKE PLANS TO REDUCE RISK????

Effective management is clearly the best way to reduce the impact of many risks, particularly speculative risks. Careful control of financing, product development activities, production, marketing, distribution, and other management concerns help ensure that the results of most speculative risks will be profits rather than result in loss or failure of the business. Many entrepreneurs control risk by keeping fixed assets to a minimum or by renting facilities rather than using personal funds to purchase land and buildings.

Entrepreneurs do not necessarily seek out risks; they ASSUME risks. You can reduce risk through careful planning and decision-making with activities such as the following:
1. Analyzing current and future economic and market conditions.
2. Considering the consequences of alternative actions
3. Making reasonable decisions in response to conditions as they develop and change.


WHAT METHODS DO ENTREPRENEURS USE TO CONTROL RISK?

Once entrepreneurs have identified the risks they face, they must decide what to do about them. Some risks are easier to control than others and the actions of the owner will vary with the circumstances faced by individual firms. Most owners control risk by--



  • RISK AVOIDANCE (eliminating the risk) is abandoning or refusing to undertake an activity in which the risk seems too costly.
  • RISK REDUCTION (minimizing the risk) consists of using various methods to reduce the probability that a given event will occur. Although some risks cannot be avoided, most can be appreciably reduced. The primary control technique is prevention, including the use of safety and protective techniques.
  • RISK TRANSFER means shifting the consequences of a risk to persons or organizations outside your business. The best known form of risk transfer is insurance, which is the process by which an insurance company agrees to pay an individual or organization an agreed upon sum of money for a prospective future loss.
  • RISK ASSUMPTION, also known as risk absorption or risk retention, involves the planned acceptance of the risk of loss. In some instances, reducing certain risks may be too expensive. Generally, the small business owner will assume risks in which losses that occur will not produce significant financial consequences to the business. Determining the amount of loss that is significant is not a precise science.

    Most entrepreneurs use a combination of methods when controlling and managing risks.

January 20, 2014

Marketing Plans & Business plan

You hear people talk about marketing plans and you hear people talk about business plans. What’s the difference? Why would you need both? A business plan is a detailed presentation or report that discusses:

  • Company Goals

  • Products/Services

  • Operations/Management

  • Product Development

  • Financial Position

  • Income Statements, Cash Flow, Expenses
A marketing plan, which may be included in part within a business plan, focuses more on the marketing and promotion of the products or services a company offers.
So, do you need both? Yes ... use both types of plans as benchmarks throughout the year to ensure you’re on track to meeting your goals.
The Dark side
Did you know there is a dark side to creating a business and marketing plan? The thing about developing your plan is that you not only define your company's strengths, you uncover its weaknesses, as well. Be prepared to face them head on and either neutralize them or transform them into strengths.

Failing to plan is planning to Fail

If you fail to plan, you are essentially planning to fail. And yet, so many entrepreneurs fail to create a business and marketing plan for their businesses. A business plan can help you see the bigger picture and get organized, as well as:
Help you commit. You may have an idea of your company's goals in your head, but if you put them down on paper, it goes a long way toward making them happen.
Makes you a team player. By sharing your business plan with your employees, you make them feel like part of the company's operations. You give them an understanding of what the business' goals and objectives are, and they can help achieve them.
Help you make smart decisions. If everything is according to your business plan, you won't be taken by surprise by needs you didn't foresee. Planning well can help you make decisions about commercial property lease or purchase or equipment procurement.
Attract investors. Investors won't even consider funding a business without a plan. Even if you don't need financing today, one day you may.
Create an action plan. While you may know what your goals are, you may not know how to make them happen. A business plan should include action items that stimulate you to reach your goals.

January 19, 2014

Want to be an Entrepreneur go for it

10 things for a first time Entrepreneur.
1.Don’t be an entrepreneur just for the heck of it. There’s no point in getting into a business that everyone else is already doing. Like the  guy who wanted to get into the soft drink business but then he invented the straw.

2.Don’t just start a company. Start a whole new industry. Remember Post-Its.
3.Never give up. The guy who started Victora’s Secret sold his company and jumped off a bridge before it became Victoria’s secret.
4.Don’t be afraid. Ron Wayne was so afraid of starting a new company that he backed out of his partnership contract. He is now living on his pension. Oh I forgot to mention, the contract was for Apple Inc.
5.Good artists copy, great artist steal. The entire Macintosh idea was stolen from Xerox. and then Microsoft copied it from Apple.
6.Sell yourself shamelessly. Branson is probably more popular than his own company – Virgin.
7.Be creative . Very creative. There’s this guy who took a circle, put a price tag on it , patented it and made billions. It was called the hoolahoop.
8.Dont wait. Jobs, Zuckeberg, Gates we’re all billionaires before they were 25. You dont wanna wait to be 35, with a wife and 2 kids and then start a company.
9.Improvise and move along with the times. Nokia started as a rubber product company. Apple now makes phones. And Microsoft, err, they’ll probably be getting into home appliances soon.
10.Print your business card with a dummy company name and CEO written below. Distribute this among all your friends. After 6 months you better start your company or you’ll be the laughing stock of the entire town. Micheal Dell did this when he was 16. One of you reading this must be probably working for him.


January 18, 2014

UP coming smart phones in INDIA in 2014

Here we're looking at those phones that haven't yet launched, those we know are coming, or are anticipated. Some will be rumour, some will be fact, but here we'll cut through the speculation to highlight those phones we really want to see. .

HTC M8/new HTC One


We've known since July 2013 that the next HTC flagship handset is referred to internally as the HTC M8, the successor to the M7, the device that became the HTC One. With HTC saying that the "One" name is here to stay, it's safe to predict that the final commercial name will be new HTC One or HTC One (2014) or something like that. That much has been mentioned by a judge in a patent case in the UK, along with a launch date of Q1 2014.
HTC is a creature of habit, so we'd predict that the next-gen HTC One will launch in February 2014. Perhaps not at Mobile World Congress 2014, but within a few weeks of the mobile tradeshow with its own global launch event and we'd expect the shipping date to be the end of March or early April.
As for the specs, it looks like HTC will be bringing the M8 up to mark with a 2.3GHz Qualcomm Snapdragon 800 chipset, a 5-inch 1920 x 1080 pixel resolution display and Android 4.4 KitKat with Sense 6.0. There's little to surprise in there and we suspect most of the attention will be on the metal body construction as HTC looks to repeat the luscious looks of the 2013 HTC One.
We'll be keeping a close eye on HTC and bringing you any news we hear on the next HTC handset.

Sony Xperia Z2/Sirius


Sony used CES 2014 to launch two devices, the Z1 Compact and the Z1S. Neither are a flagship replacement for the Z1. Traditionally Sony has launched a new device at the beginning of the year, but it looks like we're in for an update later in 2014. There are rumours of a new flagship handset, codenamed Sirius, to be launched at Mobile World Congress in February 2014.
The Xperia Z product line has a real strength in design. We love the slim monolitic looks, but felt that the Z1 took things a little too far, with the handset bloating too much to accomodate all the tech within. We'd predict that the Xperia Z2/Sirius will slim things down a little, but keep to a similar, recognisable, design that fits the family.
We'd also expect similar internals to the Z1, with a Qualcomm Snapdragon 800, perhaps 3GB of RAM, a full HD display, with suggestions it might grow to 5.2 inches to match the LG G2. If Sony can do this without growing the size of the phone's body, then it will be an impressive feat. We'd also expect Sony to be supporting 4K video capture with the camera, ready for playback on your Sony 4K TV.

Sony Xperia Z1S


We'd caught wind of the Sony Xperia Z1S name and that appears to be T-Mobile's (US) variant of the Sony Xperia Z1. Sony announced the new handset at CES 2014 in Las Vegas.
The device will come with a 5-inch full HD display, a Snapdragon 800 processor and 2GB of RAM. It will sport the same waterproofed design as other devices in the Xperia Z family and will be appearing on T-Mobile from 13 January.

Sony Xperia Z1 Compact


We'd heard rumours that there would be a "mini" Xperia Z1 coming. In fact, it launched late in 2013 in Asia with the Xperia Z1F, but has now made the hop to global markets as the Sony Xperia Z1 Compact.
Avoiding the common pitfall of downgrading the specs in the process of making a smaller version of a phone, the Xperia Z1 Compact has the same quad-core chipset and RAM as the Xperia Z1, so you'll be looking at the same sort of power. It also has the same camera and is waterproof too.
About the only negative is that the display resolution drops to 1280 x 720, but on a 4.3-inch display, it'll probably meet your needs. It's likely to be pretty expensive, but at least in going mini you won't have to live with less power or storage.


Nokia Lumia 929/Nokia Lumia Icon


Nokia has been going from strength to strength in 2013, making Windows Phone a much more attractive proposition over the past 12 months. The best device so far has been the Lumia 1520, as it breaks new ground for Windows Phone, pushing the display resolution up and making better use of the space available.
The Nokia Lumia 929 looks to be headed to Verizon to be called the Nokia Lumia Icon, but it appears to plug a gap in the Lumia line-up. That's perhaps difficult to believe, given the number of handsets that Nokia has, but the Lumia Icon will offer a full HD 5-inch display, along with a 20-megapixel PureView camera. That's something that might grab the attention of those getting tired of Android.
If the Lumia 929 appears outside of Verizon - which it probably will - it should give you all the goodness of the Lumia 1520, but in a pocketable package closer in size to the current batch of Android flagship devices. Now that's an exciting proposition.


Samsung Galaxy S5


For many, the hottest handset on the horizon will be the Samsung Galaxy S5. Where does Samsung go after packing everything into the Samsung Galaxy S4 and following up with the excellent Samsung Galaxy Note 3?
There are already rumours swirling about the Samsung Galaxy S5, including talk of a 5.2-inch device that bumps the resolution up to 2560 x 1440 (560ppi), meaning it would be super-sharp and class leading for pixel density. We're sure we'll see a matching of the Note 3's SD800 and 3GB of RAM to give it plenty of power. There's also talk of a metal body alongside the plastic version, with Samsung looking to draw those that HTC attracted with its premium finishes.
With Samsung usually launching later than others, we'd expect the Samsung Galaxy S5 release date to be April 2014, or thereabouts, again with a hugely spectacular launch event.

LG G Flex


The LG G Flex has already been announced, one of the first devices to launch with a curved display. It's certainly an exciting prospect. Not only is it offering a distinctive form factor, but it has a 6-inch display and plenty of power under the hood with a Snapdragon 800 chipset.
The thing that's the most interesting, however, is not the raw specs themselves, but that LG is seeing what it can do with a flexible display. Some will say it's a proof of concept as much as anything else, but we can see the appeal - not only to make it face hugging, so it's not so crazy when making calls, but also on how your thumb moves around the display.
We've had our hands-on the LG G Flex, which is confirmed to be coming to the UK in February 2014 with EE, and we're impressed with the range of software additions to make the larger format useful.

Samsung Galaxy Round


The Samsung Galaxy Round is another device, like the LG G Flex, that has already been announced, seeing the two Korean giants going head to head. They're a similar concept, but the curve of Samsung's device is on the opposite axis to that of LG.
The Samsung Galaxy Round has a 5.7-inch 1080p display and seems to take some of its styling from the Galaxy Note 3, with a faux leather back. There's plenty of power with a Qualcomm Snapdragon 800 chipset and 3GB of RAM, and all the normal Samsung software goodies.
We're yet to see the Galaxy Round hit the shelves, but again, like the LG, we're excited to see something a little different and see how the curved display is going to impact on the future of what we want from smartphones.

Books of the year


FICTION
By Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie.
Alfred A. Knopf, $26.95.
By turns tender and trenchant, Adichie’s third novel takes on the comedy and tragedy of American race relations from the perspective of a young Nigerian immigrant. From the office politics of a hair-braiding salon to the burden of memory, there’s nothing too humble or daunting for this fearless writer, who is so attuned to the various worlds and shifting selves we inhabit — in life and online, in love, as agents and victims of history and the heroes of our own stories.

THE FLAMETHROWERS
By Rachel Kushner.
Scribner, $26.99.
Radical politics, avant-garde art and motorcycle racing all spring to life in Kushner’s radiant novel of the 1970s, in which a young woman moves to New York to become an artist, only to wind up involved in the revolutionary protest movement that shook Italy in those years. The novel, Kushner’s second, deploys mordant observations and chiseled sentences to explore how individuals are swept along by implacable social forces.

THE GOLDFINCH
By Donna Tartt.
Little, Brown & Company, $30.
Tartt’s intoxicating third novel, after “The Secret History” and “The Little Friend,” follows the travails of Theo Decker, who emerges from a terrorist bombing motherless but in possession of a prized Dutch painting. Like the best of Dickens, the novel is packed with incident and populated with vivid characters. At its heart is the unwavering belief that come what may, art can save us by lifting us above ourselves.

LIFE AFTER LIFE
By Kate Atkinson.
A Reagan Arthur Book/Little, Brown & Company, $27.99.
Demonstrating the agile style and theatrical bravado of her much-admired Jackson Brodie mystery novels, Atkinson takes on nothing less than the evils of mid-20th-century history and the nature of death as she moves back and forth in time, fitting together versions of a life story for a heroine who keeps dying, then being resurrected — and sent off in different, but entirely plausible, directions.

TENTH OF DECEMBER
Stories
By George Saunders.
Random House, $26.
Saunders’s wickedly entertaining stories veer from the deadpan to the flat-out demented: Prisoners are force-fed mood-altering drugs; ordinary saps cling to delusions of grandeur; third-world women, held aloft on surgical wire, become the latest in bourgeois lawn ornaments. Beneath the comedy, though, Saunders writes with profound empathy, and this impressive collection advances his abiding interest in questions of class, power and justice.

NONFICTION
AFTER THE MUSIC STOPPED
The Financial Crisis, the Response, and the Work Ahead
By Alan S. Blinder.
The Penguin Press, $29.95.
Blinder’s terrific book on the financial meltdown of 2008 argues that it happened because of a “perfect storm,” in which many unfortunate events occurred simultaneously, producing a far worse outcome than would have resulted from just a single cause. Blinder criticizes both the Bush and Obama administrations, especially for letting Lehman Brothers fail, but he also praises them for taking steps to save the country from falling into a serious depression. Their response to the near disaster, Blinder says, was far better than the public realizes.

DAYS OF FIRE
Bush and Cheney in the White House
By Peter Baker.
Doubleday, $35.
Baker succeeds in telling the story of the several crises of the Bush administration with fairness and balance, which is to say that he is sympathetic to his subjects, acknowledging their accomplishments but excusing none of their errors. Baker, the chief White House correspondent for The Times, is fascinated by the mystery of the Bush-­Cheney relationship, and even more so by the mystery of George W. Bush himself. Did Bush lead, or was he led by others? In the end, Baker concludes, the “decider” really did decide.

FIVE DAYS AT MEMORIAL
Life and Death in a Storm-Ravaged Hospital
By Sheri Fink.
Crown, $27.
In harrowing detail, Fink describes the hellish days at a hospital during and after Hurricane Katrina, when desperate medical professionals were suspected of administering lethal injections to critically ill patients. Masterfully and compassionately reported and as gripping as a thriller, the book poses reverberating questions about end-of-life care, race discrimination in medicine and how individuals and institutions break down during disasters.

THE SLEEPWALKERS
How Europe Went to War in 1914
By Christopher Clark.
Harper, $29.99.
Clark manages in a single volume to provide a comprehensive, highly readable survey of the events leading up to World War I. He avoids singling out any one nation or leader as the guilty party. “The outbreak of war,” he writes, “is not an Agatha Christie drama at the end of which we will discover the culprit standing over a corpse.” The participants were, in his term, “sleepwalkers,” not fanatics or murderers, and the war itself was a tragedy, not a crime.

WAVE
By Sonali Deraniyagala.
Alfred A. Knopf, $24.
On the day after Christmas in 2004, Deraniyagala called her husband to the window of their hotel room in Sri Lanka. “I want to show you something odd,” she said. The ocean looked foamy and closer than usual. Within moments, it was upon them. Deraniyagala lost her husband, her parents and two young sons to the Indian Ocean tsunami. Her survival was miraculous, and so too is this memoir — unsentimental, raggedly intimate, full of fury.


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